Saturday, August 4, 2012

Toronto House Prices on the Skids

source: TREB Market Watch

The Headline to the Release is "GTA Home Prices Up in July" but that is a desperation truth refering to the overall average for all types all areas, not a single one of the median numbers I'm tracking came out higher this month. (I only track those with enough sales each month to eliminate noise.) This is the time in the market shift when sales mix plays havoc with the average.
Toronto Median Sales Prices over last year
Medians for a variety of sales types. Not a single month on month increase among them. Detached TREB down $38,000 since the April Peak for a 7% decline. That means if you bought during the spring sale-a-thon and put 5% down you are officially, solidly underwater. Hope your snorkel doesn't have a leak . . . you are going to need it.
Toronto Median Condo Prices over last year
Duplicated from the above chart, here are condo prices only. Toronto Central looks unlikely to challenge the peak from September 2011. Median prices are down 6% or $22,000 since then.

And according to the link below, unsold NEW units are at 18k inventory. Sales of new units are down 50% from last year and the absorption rate is the lowest since the height of the 2008 crisis. And, get this, 52k+ condos were under construction at the end of Q2. Is that a recipe for a market disaster or what? Pull forward demand (last year's investor sales were insanely robust), build like crazed sky-addicted groundhogs, wait for the massive overshoot upward in inventory and then downward in price. Then watch as projects become pure apartments.

Note: just because condos are assigned doesn't mean the buyers are going to get financing upon completion and actually take delivery. Imagine divvying up the cost of occupying a tower by half or even a third of the expected occupants. What a mess it's going to be.

Toronto condo market loses steam as investors bolt

"The not-for-occupancy investor that has been driving 45 per cent to 60 per cent of Toronto condo sales in recent years disappeared as the monthly net cash flow to financing and paying condo fees and then renting it out remains negative while rental rates and prices flatten out," they said.
"This hard data confirms the anecdotes of pulled project openings and construction delays this year," the economists added in a research note

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