Track the bubble in Canadian Real Estate
Prices are for Single Family Homes, Detached unless marked otherwise.
*yes, averages accentuate increases and therefore declines. Anytime REBGV wants to publish an overall median, I'm all for it.
**computed from graph of index on monthly report. historical benchmark not provided before 2011
§ peak and current prices as reported, declines computed using 3 month moving average to eliminate noise
Cities (Quebec) will be added as peaks become clear.
Use of averages typically accentuates real estate peaks and declines so I'm trying to use indexes or medians, if possible. Edmonton does not provide an archive of anything other than averages, even though they report medians, ongoing. If anyone has the peak median price, I'll change that row over. Halifax only reports averages.
References: CREB EREB NSAR REBGV Yattermatters.com VREB CIQ OREB New Releases OREB Old Releases (compliments of a realtor, because for some bizarro-world reason, the OREB does not have an archive of stats) GMREB/CIGM RAHB KWAR
Using Bank of Canada inflation calculator for current values
Base Price: an attempt to find a historical non-bubble price based on last time prices were stable relative to inflation
Bottom: date where inflation adjusted rise in base price == current price decline based on running average of last 8 months
Prices are for Single Family Homes, Detached unless marked otherwise.
| City | Peak Month | Peak Price | Current Price | Decline from Peak |
| Vancouver | Feb 2012 | $1,235,244 (REBGV average via yattermatters.com)* | $1,152,251 (Jan 2013) | 6.7% - $82,000 |
| Vancouver | Apr 2012 | $1,064,800 (REBGV new HPI) | $914,500
(Nov 2012) | 14.1% - $150,300 |
| Toronto City Houses | Apr 2012 | $656,000 (TREB median) | $562,000 (Dec 2012) | 14.3% - $94,000 |
| Toronto Metro Houses | Apr 2012 | $555,000 (TREB median) | $518,000 (Dec 2012) | 6.7% - $37,000 |
| Toronto Central Condos | Sept 2011 | $387,000 (TREB median) | $350,000 (Dec 2012) | 9.6% - $37,000 |
| Victoria | May 2010 | $594,500 (VREB median) | $489,000 (Jan 2013) | 10.8% - $62,600 § |
| Victoria | June 2010 | $649,280 (VREB average) | $530,517 (Jan 2013) | 7.5% - $48,000 § |
| Edmonton | May 2007 | $424,572 (EREB average) | $391,427 (Jan 2013) | 5.8% - $25,000 |
| Calgary | June 2007 | $464,500** (CREB benchmark) | $421,400 (Dec 2012) | 9.3% - $43,200 |
| Hamilton | June 2012 | $338,420 (RAHB median, freehold) | $308,000 (Jan 2013) | 5.8% - $19,400 § |
| Ottawa | April 2012 | $385,660 (OREB average) | $358,211 (Jan 2013) | 4.1% - $16,000 § |
| Montreal | June 2012 | $280,000 (GMREB median) | $268,000 (Jan 2013) | 4.3% - $12,000 |
| Kitchner-Waterloo | April 2012 | $288,000 (KWAR K-W median) | $281,000 (Jan 2013) | 2.1% - $6,000 |
*yes, averages accentuate increases and therefore declines. Anytime REBGV wants to publish an overall median, I'm all for it.
**computed from graph of index on monthly report. historical benchmark not provided before 2011
§ peak and current prices as reported, declines computed using 3 month moving average to eliminate noise
Cities (Quebec) will be added as peaks become clear.
Use of averages typically accentuates real estate peaks and declines so I'm trying to use indexes or medians, if possible. Edmonton does not provide an archive of anything other than averages, even though they report medians, ongoing. If anyone has the peak median price, I'll change that row over. Halifax only reports averages.
References: CREB EREB NSAR REBGV Yattermatters.com VREB CIQ OREB New Releases OREB Old Releases (compliments of a realtor, because for some bizarro-world reason, the OREB does not have an archive of stats) GMREB/CIGM RAHB KWAR
Market Bottom Scratchpad
Using 1915-2010 average inflation rate of 3.26% for projectionsUsing Bank of Canada inflation calculator for current values
Base Price: an attempt to find a historical non-bubble price based on last time prices were stable relative to inflation
Bottom: date where inflation adjusted rise in base price == current price decline based on running average of last 8 months
| City | Year of Base Price | Base Price | Inflation Adjusted 2012 Base Price | Overvalued by |
| Vancouver | 2000 | $335,000 | $420,000 ($514,000†) | $365,000 |
| bottom: March 2020 -- time to bottom: 97 months †adjustment for prevalence of basement suites $1200 monthly rent over 13 years = 187k. Est half of houses have one: 94k average price bump. | ||||
| Victoria | 2000 | $251,398 | $323,500 | $251,300 |
| bottom: Sept 2017 -- time to bottom: 63 months historical values are not available as medians, this estimate uses averages (updated July 2012) | ||||
| Montreal | 2000 | $114,500 | $144,000 | $121,000 |
| bottom: Feb 2019 -- time to bottom: 84 months Montreal is the second most overvalued city in Canada. The low prices mask this for those looking from Ontario or BC. It's all about the wages. | ||||
| Ottawa | 1999 | $149,650 | $196,400 | $171,000 |
| bottom: Oct 2018 -- time to bottom: 81 months | ||||
| Calgary | 2004 | $250,000 | $290,000 | $104,000 |
| bottom: Sep 2014 -- time to bottom: 31 months Note: Due to discontinued data, insufficient historical data to update this computation. Will update when sufficient new-new data is available. | ||||
