TREB we can better track what is happening on the ground in Toronto. Since the most recent peak in November 2011, Toronto Detached for all of TREB have fallen nearly $21,000, or 4%. Given the large sample size, this is a pretty stable measure. Housepriceindex.ca is also showing a local peak at this time for Toronto. I'm going to hold off adding it to the Canadian Peak Bubble Cities List for another two months to be certain.
Other goings on in the Toronto shelter market: Condos in all of TREB appear to have peaked in October of 2011, and have since then fallen $13,000 or 4.2%. Same with condos in Toronto City, which have fallen $17,500 since October or 5.2%. And the category most firmly showing a solid peak, Toronto Central Condos, which peaked way back in September 2011 and have since fallen $27,000 or 7%. Anyone who bought a condo in q3, q4 of 2011 in Toronto with 5% down is at risk of being underwater. Individual properties, of course, vary. But the environment has definitely gotten tougher.