Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Statistics Package has been released. Here is the latest house price change chart for April.
It appears as if the previous trend line is trying to reassert itself. Last month, I suspected that it may do so now that we are fully clear of the mortgage change deadline and any late reporting from it.
The actual numbers off that projection were $620,000 for April up from $616,000 in March for all transactions and $877,000 for April up from $867,000 in March for detached transactions. That was just shy of the actual numbers of $623,000 for all and $879,000 for detached. April was always going to be higher than March because April was the highest month in 2010. Now, May, that will be a real test for the new trend line. In 2010 May was $8,000 lower than April for detached and $3000 lower for all transactions.
So, to go out on a limb, under the old trend line with April's data inserted, May would be $614,000 for all and $860,000 for detached, and continuing on that, hit zero gain year on year in August/September. Or, we could see another big discontinuity this year, like we had between May and June of last year and hit the speculative zero sum wall in two months. Such a matching drop would in fact erase the February/March surge from the chart and put us back on the earlier trend line.
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| Vancouver House Price Changes, April 2011 |
It appears as if the previous trend line is trying to reassert itself. Last month, I suspected that it may do so now that we are fully clear of the mortgage change deadline and any late reporting from it.
The actual numbers off that projection were $620,000 for April up from $616,000 in March for all transactions and $877,000 for April up from $867,000 in March for detached transactions. That was just shy of the actual numbers of $623,000 for all and $879,000 for detached. April was always going to be higher than March because April was the highest month in 2010. Now, May, that will be a real test for the new trend line. In 2010 May was $8,000 lower than April for detached and $3000 lower for all transactions.
So, to go out on a limb, under the old trend line with April's data inserted, May would be $614,000 for all and $860,000 for detached, and continuing on that, hit zero gain year on year in August/September. Or, we could see another big discontinuity this year, like we had between May and June of last year and hit the speculative zero sum wall in two months. Such a matching drop would in fact erase the February/March surge from the chart and put us back on the earlier trend line.
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