Monday, May 16, 2011

Is the Vancouver Market Bifurcating?

Given the market declines at the edges (Kelowna and Victoria for example) I was curious if Greater Vancouver was starting to bifurcate. So I took the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Year over Year change in HPI for the submarkets over the last year, smoothed them over 4 months, and plotted them.

Some interesting things going on. Notice Richmond has a life all its own, as well as Squamish, both looking like wall flowers getting asked to dance by the cute guy just as the band is winding down. Burnaby never spent a party shifting nervously from foot to foot by the wall, but she sure is kicking up her hells now while everyone else is looking a little peaked. Maybe someone offered her a Red Bull and coke.

Other interesting things of note, if you want someone to personify the entire market, Van East is your girl. She's sticking tightest in the posse following the grey HPI line. And, yes, the salmon colored line for Port Moody is correct, even smoothed. Port Moody swung from -18% to +19% in just one month (suspiciously just as the mortgage rule warning came out) then kicked her ruby red slippers another month for a 21% gain, year on year. Warning for those in this market. She's returned to her senses and is back to a -7% loss year on year now that the mortgage party was crashed by the cops.

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