Saturday, May 21, 2011

Value of Outstanding Mortgages Relative to GDP, Canada, Australia, in context


Canada's mortgage debt is $1.07 trillion and is growing by $100 billion a year. By next year, if GDP growth remains 5.6% the value of outstanding mortgages relative to GDP will be 69.2%, and the year after 71.2%, which given the ongoing shrinking market in the U.S. will most likely surpass them. This assumes the bubble continues apace.

According to the Australian Mortgage Report
"In the last five years, the value of outstanding mortgages has more than doubled, increasing by $617 billion to $1.16 trillion."
That breakneck pace has slowed: "Annual system growth continues to decline, with the 7.4% growth for the year to December 2010 the lowest for the past five years."
With GDP growing 3.3% a year, next year the outstanding mortgage relative to GDP for Australia will be 101% of GDP. That sounds like a completely reasonable number, doesn't it? o__O

*source Milken Institute

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