Thursday, September 13, 2012

Early Warning for Canada

Year on year total home sales change and months of inventory provides early warning on prices for Canadian cities in August:
Vancouver -31%10.7 MOI
Quebec -26%12 MOI
Victoria -17%10.9 MOI
Ottawa -14% (Total inventory not provided)
Hamilton-Burlington -13%3.2 MOI
Edmonton -11% 5.2 MOI
Montreal -7% 10.8 MOI
Kitchener-Waterloo -4% (Total inventory not provided)
Calgary +16% 6.3 MOI

Months of Inventory (MOI) over 6.5 is considered depressive on prices. Will prices decline? No real telling, I'm afraid, but MOI is generally a reliable belweather.

I have a suspicion that Hamilton is suffering from a product substitution effect where Toronto buyers, fed up with getting out bid near the big city, are shifting their buying that far afield and impacting that much smaller market. Hamilton only looks cheap I estimate it is 100k overvalued.

The Hamilton August MLS release is here They still haven't fixed the broken link.

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