Sunday, July 29, 2012

Bottom Calling in Australia

ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) is the most trusted name in Australian property data, everyone else is selling their book. But Australian Property Monitors has a new release that has inspired the WSJ to make a bottom call.

June quarter house prices back RBA governor's view
Nationwide, house prices gained by 0.4 per cent for the three months to June, while prices for apartments fell 0.8 per cent, according to figures released by Australian Property Monitors yesterday.
He said most capital-city housing markets had bottomed out in the December quarter.

"This trend can be expected to continue in most capital-city markets over the second half of 2012, underpinned by the prospects of an active spring selling season signalled by recent improvements in auction clearance rates and recent interest rate cuts," he said.

In a speech on Tuesday, Mr Stevens said he did not anticipate a fall in house prices and fears of a US-style collapse were misplaced.
(here's the APM report from March) The most affordable mainland capital city in Australia is Brisbane at $427,933.

Let's put that in perspective by comparing GDP per capita (international dollars)
U.S.: $48,387
Canada: $40,541
Australia: $40,234
The relative national house prices are: (in U.S. dollars)
U.S.: $204k
Canada: $439k
Australia: $555k
GDP source (IMF numbers show much less of a gap than World Bank numbers, IMF are used here.)

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