In anticipation of the September release I plotted the daily MLS numbers for new listings and sales so kindly provided by Vancouver realtors Lauren and Paul as posted to Vancouvercondo.info. We lost a pair of reliable data providers last month and that really hurt, especially since, anecdotally, the market seems to be shifting, but without numbers, the stories lack context.
What this chart shows is that sales are comparable, but new listings are consistently running in excess of last year. Also of note is the weekly pattern of new listings. Just a bit of pent up supply from the weekend, it looks like. Well, honey, we drank too much all weekend, time to sell the house.
Total inventory is on the rise. I don't have the data for that, but Urban Vancouver Properties has a monthly chart. We are crossing 2010 inventory levels for September, but unlike 2010 when inventory was falling at this time, inventory in September 2011 is on the rise. Also, according to their MOI (months of inventory) chart, we are approaching the balanced market point (6- 6.5 MOI) and if we sail right through it, as the trends suggest we will, prices are going to be under a lot of pressure in conjunction with the general economy.
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| Daily MLS Sales and New Listings for Houses in Vancouver, Canada, Sept 2011 |
What this chart shows is that sales are comparable, but new listings are consistently running in excess of last year. Also of note is the weekly pattern of new listings. Just a bit of pent up supply from the weekend, it looks like. Well, honey, we drank too much all weekend, time to sell the house.
Total inventory is on the rise. I don't have the data for that, but Urban Vancouver Properties has a monthly chart. We are crossing 2010 inventory levels for September, but unlike 2010 when inventory was falling at this time, inventory in September 2011 is on the rise. Also, according to their MOI (months of inventory) chart, we are approaching the balanced market point (6- 6.5 MOI) and if we sail right through it, as the trends suggest we will, prices are going to be under a lot of pressure in conjunction with the general economy.
3 comments:
Inventory will need to trend quite a bit higher, or sales need to drop by 20% or so, to have a measurable effect on prices, based on the analysis I have done.
That day may be coming if construction starts begin to ebb.
I expect the same decline month-on-month as last month's. Do you have a link to your analysis? Your profile doesn't go through.
MOI of about 6 is flat prices. To have a "meaningful" impact on prices, I expect higher MOI, probably above 8 at least, to precipitate a 10% YOY price crash:
http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/ubergeek-post-on-price-changes-and.html
These are all approximate numbers, but the general trend is, of course, more inventory, lower sales = falling prices.
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