Saturday, March 5, 2011

Hot Hot Hot

Revisiting the Vancouver numbers. Here is the updated Year on Year price change graph. Not much to observe beyond the whiplash, but Detached pulled up harder than Overall.

The next question one might ask is: Is the price change evenly distributed?

Well, no. And if you are the type who sees Mainland Chinese buyers when you close your eyes at night, you will not be surprised by what areas come out on top.

So, what is left if we take out the super hot markets? I weighted the percent changes by the number of sales and the recomputed. NOTE: I couldn't get the overall number to match. When I took each of the sub-market percent changes and weighted them against the total sales last month and recalculated the overall percent change I got 8.29% rather than 5.98% which is what you get if you take the overall HPI from this month and compare it to the overall HPI from a year ago last month. I spent quite a bit of time trying to figure out where that's coming from, but could not. (I'm inclined to guess there are some halo areas not included in the sub-market breakouts, but I don't know that for certain. It would, however, explain why the overall number is lower. The other possibility is the total sales in certain areas does not accurately reflect the actual "typical" sales used to calculate the HPI for that submarket.)

I think the calculations below are illustrative within the scope of just the data presented below. But it can't be compared to the overall historically reported numbers. It does serve to illustrate the scale of the change we get if we exclude certain submarkets. But that's all.

Note: Sunshine Coast is such a small number of sales it barely matters if it's in or out.

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