(BTW, you can always click on the graph to get a larger version.)
|Vancouver House Price Change Year over Year Plotted Monthly with Predictions|
This is the graph from Seriously Royal LePage? posted the other day. I added some trend lines, one linear and one a repeat of the previous decline in prices. I also made a hybrid of the two, in red. First off, I don't think that bottom that formed in 2009 will reappear this time around. Two factors were arresting the market's plunge at the beginning of 2009: Chinese bailout money spilling into Vancouver and Canada loosening lending standards which increased liquidity for traditional purchases.
The green (linear) line may hold firm until the market drops to 0% growth, year on year. Sentiment has a long way to swing, but after it does, recent history makes for a decent guess as to momentum.
So, my back of the envelope predictions for 2011 are:
March, detached house price (0% year on year): $800,000 (essentially flat from the last few months)
September, detached house price (-12% year on year): $699,000*
ADDED: December, detached house price (-15% year on year): $653,000
(* september 2010 was a slightly off beat month, I averaged August to October and took 88% of that.)
[The underlying chart has been updated for January]