Monday, November 15, 2010

TD: Canadian Home Sales Continue to Improve

Move along. Nothing to see here.

Release: Canadian home sales continue to improve in October
• If you’ve ever wondered what a soft landing in housing looks like, this may well be it. The string of three consecutive gains in monthly sales helps confirm a stabilization of market activity. It appears that Q3 sales marked a trough with 98,000 units sold. If sales in the remainder of Q4 simply held steady at the October level, this would mark a near 10% improvement from Q3. With only two months of data left in the year, year-to-date sales are roughly in line with those of last year near 375,000 units.
Pouring the diverse markets of Canada into one big pot seems almost guaranteed to average things out. Faced with Vancouver's numbers alone, I'm curious how he would spin things. The September report doesn't split out any provinces or cities either for a special look.
• Sales have been well supported by low and decreasing borrowing rates. As of late October, typical fixed 5- year mortgage rates had dropped by a full percentage point since April 2010, hitting all-time lows.
Shorter version: We lowered the cost of borrowing and people borrowed more. Okay, so the implication is your "stable" market relies on bribed buyers and excess money in the market. Got it.

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