From May 2010: (Marc Faber quoted in Businessweek) China May Crash in 9-12 months
China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month. As much as 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.
No mention of what may trigger the actual collapse. Clearly it has only inflated since this prediction, which is due January through April 2011 to come true. Seems like it's got at least another Friedman Unit to a year ;-)
The crash itself will be money exiting the China zone. Money so far, continues to rush in, minus Chinese investments abroad (like financing Manhattan high rises).
Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20 percent in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said April 23. Under a stress test conducted by the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, local banks’ ratio of delinquent mortgages would triple should home prices in the country’s commercial center decline 10 percent.
Something about this expectation that government curbs will actually do something. Speculators do not, by and large, work inside the system being curbed . . .
[Catch the rest of the China Crash Predictions Series]