Monday, October 4, 2010

Vancouver September Real Estate Numbers Should be Telling

While we are waiting on September's data, here is a nice summary about August.

Vancouver Property Prices Slow
While markets around the globe struggled, Vancouver prices hit their peak in April, when the REBGV's residential index hit a price of $593,419 for a house. International buyers helped fuel the surge, especially investors from mainland China. Since April the index price has slipped 2.8 percent, to $576,597, which is still 6.9 percent higher than August of 2009.
"The question I would ask is, in order to see this so-called 30 per cent price correction, what kind of shock is going to occur to induce that?"
You build the next condo and they don't come. That's all it takes.

I have a theory about Chinese real estate "investors" distorting the Vancouver market. It's understood that prior to Hong Kong returning to Chinese hands that Chinese buyers were driving the market leading up the the peak in 1994. (chart here) But what about now? How many of those empty condos downtown are held by Chinese investors? How many of them will have to firesale them when things in China mainland go sour?

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