Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Cascading Bubble Inputs, Australia

This is an older article from July, but it has a nice simple, illuminating chart.
Australian Economy Turbo-Boosted By Historic Surge In Export Prices
Compare this to the house price chart.

The deflection upward in Australian house prices is spot on 2001. Initially caused by this:
[This mortgage interest rate chart is from The Unconventional Economist]

Now, look back up at the first chart. Rising commodity prices did not cause the bubble, the trade boom kicked in around 2004. But it's prevented the bubble from bursting like it has in the U.S., Spain and Ireland. Waiting longer to prick a bubble does not generally make for a better outcome.

No comments: