If demand is zero, the bottom price should be something closer to zero, unless someone can invent some other economic use for these places. Long term warehousing?
The bigger issue, however, will be if declines reach the major cities. "The degree of price declines you are seeing in Kangbashi give a preview of what you will see in major cities. I would expect price declines of 20% nationwide over the next 1-2 years," Tulloch said.Anything below 9% is disaster for China. 0% would be devastating.
Tulloch points to plunging transaction volume as evidence of a property slowdown. His firm expects a hard landing, with China slowing to zero GDP growth for several quarters.