The Australian Decline is a Given

The permabull WSJ noticed Australia, but for odd reasons.

Australian Property, Long an Outlier, Joins Decline

Wage growth from Asia's appetite for commodities, a rise in immigration and slow homebuilding drove the price of the average home in Australia up 150% from 2001 to the start of this year, according to RP Data.

Yeah, that's the myth everyone told themselves as consumers leveraged up higher and higher. But in reality, it's total credit issued that feeds the rise in prices.

Household debt from ABS

Among the different types of debt, housing debt as a proportion of housing assets rose from 11% to 29%, which means overall, households have come to own a relatively smaller proportion of their houses. (It goes on to talk about equity, which is fleeting as hell.)

Between 1990 and 2008, debt for investor housing increased from 11% to 27% of all household debt. Debt for owner occupier housing was consistently the largest component, ranging
from 56% to 67% of debt (59% in September 2008).

Can't expect the WSJ to shake a convenient dead narrative, I suppose.

Back to the WSJ:

A downturn in Australia's real estate market will add to concerns of a two-speed economy in the resource-rich nation. Mining profits are surging due to heavy demand from China and other fast-growing Asian countries, but consumer businesses and manufacturing have faltered under the weight of the swollen Australian dollar, which is trading near 30-year highs to the U.S. currency.

if you weren't too distracted by superficial shiny things to use the Google, you'd have noticed that Agriculture and Mining together make up a whopping 10% of Australia's GDP. That's an engine to hang a future on. That adds up to a speed and a quarter economy, not a two-speed.

Mortgages in which payments are 30 days or more late reached an all-time high in the first quarter of 1.8%, according to ratings firm Fitch Ratings. However, that level is still well below that of the U.S., with an 8.4% figure during the quarter ended in June, according to the U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association.

You are comparing a market passing the peak with one five years beyond the peak. SRSLY. False equivalency much?