Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Australian Change in House Prices 2nd Quarter 2011 - Charts!

Yay! Data. Nom nom.

Australia Large Capital Cities Price Index Chart June 2011
(If you are unfamiliar with indices, realize that the zeroing point (notice they all cross 100 at more or less January 2004) is an arbitrary point. The markets were not equal at that time. But the numbers are comparable relative to that point. 200 would indicate that each market doubled from there, but Sydney from a median of approximately 500k and Perth from a median of approximately 250k.)

The Index chart is a little boring, really. That's why I prefer the price index percent change chart.

Australia Large Capital Cities Price Index Year on Year Change Chart June 2011
Perth and Brisbane are moderating as they approach -3 to -4% change year on year. That doesn't sound like much, but relative to a median of $520k in April 2010, that's a $20k haircut in Perth. That's enough to shift perception on the wisdom of the short term hold. One would expect. Even the groggy speculators are going to be skipping the next round and peering through the smokey haze for the glowing green sign.

From the Accompanying PDF
The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased 0.1% in the June quarter 2011. Through the year to the June quarter 2011, the index decreased 1.9%. This was the largest through the year decrease since the March quarter 2009 (–5.5%).
Lacking a global crisis, the decline in prices is much less severe. That does make the correction more manageable, from the banks' perspective, but it also makes it longer.

In contrast, the preliminary estimate for Sydney (+0.4%) was the first increase in the index since the June quarter 2010. Decreases in the subsequent quarters resulted in a through the year decrease of 0.7%. This was the first through the year decrease since the June quarter 2009 (–0.8%). Most of the positive contributions to the capital city quarterly increase were concentrated in clusters with median prices between $600 000 and $1 500 000.

Some other (fairly significant) revisions on the March data are described in the PDF.

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