17 Countries with Housing Bubbles

According to Nouriel Roubini, cheap credit is driving up prices in some smaller (and not so small) markets. These 17 countries may have housing bubbles. If they pop, God help us all.

Roubini sees housing prices getting out of whack in quite a few small and mid-sized nations that are well-governed and managed to avoid the worst economic effects of the financial crisis: Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the London metropolitan area in the U.K. He adds some key emerging markets that show the same dynamic: Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Israel, and major urban centers in Turkey, Indonesia, India and Brazil.

Hat Tip: 4SlicesofCheese at Vancouvercondo.info

London prices hit new highs on "frenzy"

Overseas investors are in a "frenzy". London house prices at new high

Asking prices in London saw an "unsustainable" 10 per cent month-on-month increase in October, pushing typical asking prices in the capital to STG544,232, leapfrogging a previous high set in July by more than STG28,000.

Prices across the country are 3.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago, although in London they have shot up by 13.8 per cent over this period, Rightmove said.

House prices in Netherlands down 4%, return to 2003 levels

September Data from Netherlands CBS

Prices for September are down over 4% year on year, a moderating of the fall that was -10% mid-summer.

Prices of existing owner-occupied dwellings were at the same level in September 2013 as in early 2003. They were 19.6 percent below the record level registered in August 2008. 

Rabobank thinks housing is undervalued
by 25 to 30 percent, and that prices will recover in another year. But admits that mortgage debt is already among the highest in Europe.

Worth noting that a gain of 30% would more than wipe out the entire decline since the change in world credit spurred by the crisis and would send prices to new highs.

Here are Dutch house prices against average income compared to Britain and US. You can decide if this looks undervalued and ripe for a rise.

Real Estate Highlights of Credit Suisse Wealth Report

Global Wealth 2013

India

Along with most countries in the developing world, personal wealth in India is heavily skewed towards property and other real assets, which make up 86% of household assets.

France

Much of the pre-2007 rise was due to the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar. However, France also experienced a rapid rise in house prices, as a result of which real property now accounts for about two-thirds of household assets. Personal debts are just 12% of household assets, a relatively low ratio for a developed economy..

Australia

nterestingly, the composition of wealth is heavily skewed towards real assets, which amount on average to USD 294,100 and form 59% of gross household assets. This average level of real assets is the second highest in the world after Norway. In part, it reflects a sparsely populated country with a large endowment of land and natural resources, but it is also a manifestation of high urban real estate prices.

Canada

The long-term rise in real estate was interrupted only briefly, and since 2008 the market has seen both new construction and house price increases. Rapid growth in mortgages has fuelled a continuing rise in household debt. Mortgage terms were tightened in 2012 and the market cooled somewhat, but there are continuing concerns. It is not clear whether the final landing will be soft or hard.

Dubai renewed boom spurs calls to remember the crisis

Dubai property sector comeback stirs fears of new bubble

Some residential property has bounced by about 20 percent, said Alan Robertson, chief executive officer for the Middle East-North Africa region at Jones Lang LaSalle property consultancy.

"We think prices will continue to grow quite quickly over the next 12 months, but over the next 24 months we will see the rate of growth slow down," he told AFP, adding that prices were still 20 to 30 percent below their 2008 peak.

Parable for the Spanish Bubble, Deer take over 37 million euro estate

Two years ago the 37-million euro Spanish hunting lodge overrun by deer a parable of property bust

Now, just two years after he lost the property to the bank, wild sheep roam at will and with no hunting, the deer population has multiplied more than fivefold, said Fabian Vinagre, the caretaker of the estate near the Spanish city of Caceres 305 kilometers (190 miles) west of Madrid.

Sareb’s sell-off is part of the process of Spain’s recovery from a five-year slump that caused property prices to plunge more than 30% and drove default rates on loans for real estate activity as high as 31%.

Even so, Spain’s property market slump is still deep. House sales fell 15% in August from a year earlier and home- mortgage approvals fell an annual 43% in July, according to Spain’s National Statistics Institute. Fitch Ratings said today the non-performing loan ratio for mortgages increased to 5.2% from 4.1% last quarter.

Home Loan Approvals in Australia drop 4%

Australia Home Loans Fall, Tempering Housing Recovery

Record-low interest rates have fueled a recovery in rate-sensitive sectors like housing, with auction clearances, house prices, and homebuilding permits all increasing in recent months. Home loans have also risen steadily up to now. Cementing recent signs that much of the housing market activity is being driven by investors, first-time homebuyers accounted for less than 14% of the market in August--the lowest percentage in nearly a decade. New lending to investors was flat on-month, but surged by almost 26% from a year earlier, the steepest gain since 2007.

Deutsche Bank also believes the rise is investor driven. New records were set in Sydney and Melbourne, fueled by eight rate cuts since end of 2011.

Foreclosures in Wenzhou strain guarantee companies

15,000 foreclosed properties in Wenzhou pummeling guarantee companies

Nosedives in the Wenzhou property market of up to 50% have forced some property buyers to stop making payments to the lenders and drop their guarantees to companies as their mortgages have exceeded the property's market value. Many have literally abandoned property, a tremendous fallout for the city's 300 surviving guarantee companies,

The 300 guarantee companies capitalized on the "residual value of collateral," using the remaining quota in a property mortgage to leverage a second mortgage. For example, banks, out of safety concerns, typically approved a mortgage of about 60% of the evaluated value of the property, with 40% untouched. Guarantee companies will try to offer mortgages for the remaining 40%, and claim a service fee. The entire operation relies heavily on a stable property market.

On Falling Interest Rates Driving a House Price "boomlet" in Australia

The Absurdity of Australian Property

So on this basis, you would argue that Sydney has moved ahead of its fundamentals over the past 12 months while Melbourne has actually underperformed. But with lower interest rates, and the prospect of more cuts to come, you could also argue that Sydney’s strong house prices reflect the discounting of a lower interest rate environment.

On the other hand, you have to ask yourself why interest rates are expected to fall. It’s because of a slowing economy. It’s because of fears over the growth prospects of our largest trading partner, China, which hasn’t even began to reform its hopelessly imbalanced economy yet.

Looking at it from a psychological perspective, you could argue that buoyant activity in the market is a result of a ‘throwing in the towel’ mentality of previously reluctant buyers, as well as continued involvement from the legion of property players in Australia who have never experienced a downturn, and who believe we will never see one again.

Shadow Banking in China is a Symptom

Shadow banking as the symptom and not the disease

Why do these exist and why do regulators tolerate them? As Zhang rightly points out and a few commentators observed post-Saradha, shutting down shadow banks can be done but amounts to shooting the messenger. The real culprit is financial repression. In the absence of high-quality, formal options to save, invest and borrow, people are forced to deal with the more “shadowy” segments of the financial system. In its extreme form, investments in financial assets of any form are rejected in favour of physical assets. In its Financial Stability Report, RBI acknowledges that “the shift from financial assets to real estate and gold has become stark. Inflation, low penetration of banking services, credibility of financial institutions in the wake of mis-selling of products and financial frauds, low post-tax returns on bank deposits, negative/low real interest rates etc could be some of the issues that need to be addressed to re-direct non-financial savings towards financial savings”.

And the South China Morning Post
How interest rate controls created a shadow banking system in China

As a result, some depositors would like to receive a higher rate. At the same time, some borrowers and banks are willing to pay higher rates, because they can still make a profit on the higher rates. Thus the policy has created a shadow banking system paying a higher rate of interest than the official rate.

This is causing concern that these wealth management products are being used to "repackage old loans and prop up risky companies and projects", and that "shadow banking is helping drive the rapid growth of credit in a weakening economy, which could lead to - in the worst situation - a series of bank failures", the report said.

This author seems to think that bribery and the black market for money will vanish with liberalization of interest rates. But there will always be borrowers who do not qualify at any interest rate who will bribe for a loan at all or to fudge the rate. State enterprise itself uses its position to obtain unreasonably low rates and always will. Interest rate liberalization will not end corruption, it will squeeze out the middlemen who are repurposing loans for an allowed activity into a banned one, which will remove a level of corruption from large projects. Just because interest rates can float doesn't suddenly mean small business is going to get loans from a state bank.