Friday, July 18, 2014

Fitch: Canada 20% Overvalued Overall

Why Fitch is sticking to its 20% Canadian home price overvaluation
The 20 per cent is derived from our sustainable home price model for the Canadian market, where we compare changes in home prices historically to changes in five major macroeconomic indicators that we consider to drive the housing market, which are income, employment, interest rates, housing supply and population growth.
I don’t think we’re the first to draw connections between the Canadian market and the Australian market. They’ve similarly benefited from positive home price growth, even throughout the financial crisis. So where we are with Canada at about 20-per-cent overvaluation for the country, and up to maybe 25 or 26 per cent for provinces like British Columbia and Ontario, we have similar market value decline projections for the Australian market in the range of 25 to 30 per cent. And it’s a similar story, you’ve got low interest rates that have supported affordability, again limited supply in the big cities like Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, and also you’ve had in that market population growth that’s been above historical averages that’s also supporting house prices on the demand side.
They also say the U.S. market is 10% overvalued.

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