Thursday, May 24, 2012

New Lending by China Banks Falling Precipitously

Take China's growth numbers with a grain of soy sauce. Lending is falling rapidly, even with padded numbers. In an economy that lives or dies on growth, this is contractive. China Banks May Miss Loan Target For 2012, Officials Say
New bank loans last month dropped 33 percent from March to 681.8 billion yuan, missing the 780 billion yuan median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A third of April’s new credit was also so-called discounted bills, or short-term loans often used by banks to pad the total figure.
This month may be worse. The four biggest banks -- which account for about 40 percent of lending -- had advanced only 34 billion yuan as of May 20, Liu Yuhui, a director at the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview this week, without saying where he got the data.
Still, as recently as last month, policy makers were indicating the target was 7.5 trillion yuan to 8 trillion yuan. Lenders in China’s eastern province of Zhejiang, for instance, will aim to increase new loans to about 670 billion yuan, accounting for 8.4 to 8.9 percent of the nation’s total increase, the government-backed Securities Times newspaper reported on April 26, citing Liu Renwu, head of the PBOC’s Hangzhou branch.

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