A new S&P report has claimed a soft landing in which China experiences 8% GDP growth could see Australia's house prices eroded by more than 5% in 2012. A doomsday scenario in which China saw 5% GDP growth could see Australia sent into a recession, with house prices falling 20%.
S&P analysts Craig Parker and Vera Chaplin predicted a soft landing was the most likely scenario for China, saying the effect on Australia was likely to be "muted".
. . .
The second-most likely scenario, Chaplin and Parker said, was a "medium" landing in which Chinese GDP growth fell to 7%, shaving 10% of Australian house prices and sending unemployment to 7.2%. The analysts gave this scenario a 25% likelihood of occurring. The hard landing scenario would see unemployment swell to 11.3%, but S&P said there was only a 10% probability this scenario would come to pass.
A collection of articles and quick commentary on residential real estate. "It's different this time, really . . . " Ha ha ha. No, it's not. When China goes down, so does Australia and Canada.
Friday, March 9, 2012
S&P Scenarios for China's Impact on Australia
Hard or soft, China's landing to dent Aussie houses
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment