Thursday, January 19, 2012

U.S. Real Estate Advisor Super-Bearish on Australia

"The market has slowed substantially but residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years."
The outlook is even grimmer for land investments, which Mr Wirsz said are more speculative and will plummet by as much as 80 and 90 per cent in value.
Commercial property will also take a hit in line with the residential sector shedding at least 50 per cent of its value.
Mr Wirsz pointed to artificially low interest rates, high loan-to-value lending practices, overinflated property prices, unrealistic vendor expectations and Australia's large number of second mortgages.
HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham said for property values to crash there would need to be sharp rises in interest rates, unemployment and housing stocks.
That combination is not on the cards, he said.
None of those things were necessary for the crash in the U.S. Yes, we have high unemployment now but that started 3 years after housing plummeted.

Mr. Bloxham (if that's his real name) has more of the usual fun things to say in the article.

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