But capital city home prices are up about 11% in the past year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, largely driven by property investors. The sharp run-up has prompted the central bank to remind the public that property prices can also decline.You know who it is really unfair to? Cash buyers. There is no "real" market for housing, as far as the central bank is concerned. No one who has saved up their money to pay all cash should be crazy enough to compete with a negatively geared investor working with leverage.
Ms. Ellis said house prices were expected to rise after the RBA cut interest rates repeatedly in recent years, reaching an all-time low of 2.5% last year. That response is “a natural part of the ‘transmission mechanism” of monetary policy, she said.
Ms. Ellis acknowledged that the rise in prices has been hard on new-home buyers. The percentage of new-home buyers in the market has fallen dramatically in the past year.
A collection of articles and quick commentary on residential real estate. "It's different this time, really . . . " Ha ha ha. No, it's not. When China goes down, so does Australia and Canada.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Australia's neighbors are taking measures to cool their housing markets, but not Australia.
Australia’s Central Bank Not Interested in Targeted Steps to Cool Housing
Sunday, May 18, 2014
What happens if sellers refuse to lower their prices?
Vietnam's housing bubble is an especially over inflated. Average prices to average incomes are at a 25x multiple. 25! In contrast the median multiple (not exactly the same measure, but similar) in Vancouver is 10x.
Sellers have not lowered their prices in the face of plummeting demand. Since 2010 they have been stubborn. The result? A Frozen Market.
No thaw expected in Vietnam's frozen housing market
Dang Hung Vo said a paradox in the property market is that supply of high-cost housing units has overwhelmed demand, leading to high inventories and bad debts, while there is a severe lack of low-cost housing units. Only 1,500 condominiums were sold in Hanoi in the first quarter, according to property firm CBRE. While that’s a five-fold increase from the 279 sold in the same period two years ago, it’s still down from the peak in 2009, when more than 15,000 units were sold in the capital city.
China's Shadow Banking system estimated at US$4.4 Trillion
China's 'Shadow Banking' Sector Valued at $5.4 Trillion
(Title is confusing, but context in the article supports the 4.4 number.)
A new report shows that China's "shadow banking" sector is now valued at 4.4 trillion US dollars. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report also warns of potential risks to the financial system.
Pawn shops, once banned, now US$11.83 billion dollar player in China's shadow banking system
China’s SMEs head for pawnbrokers as credit tightens
In such an environment SMEs often turn to family financing, underground banks and loan sharks to fund their operations. They are forced to pay eye-watering interest rates well into double-digits. By contrast, the average rate at a retail pawnshop is usually much lower. Step inside the retail unit of an upscale pawnbroker like Shanghai Hualian Pawn or Beijing’s Huaxia Pawnshop today and you’ll see the usual assortment of watches and jewellery that were common 20 years ago. But peer into an office behind the counter and you might well overhear negotiations for a loan in exchange for the keys to a luxury car or apartment deed. The average loan at a Chinese pawnbroker is about US$16,000 (RMB 100,000) versus US$150 in the US.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
It's not just an unaffordability index, it's real quality of life being lost
Barbara Yaffe: Vancouver house prices pushed by apathetic politicians and offshore demand
Doug McCandless grumbles that a building project can drag on for two years: “The neighbourhood is held hostage to contractors coming and going, huge messes accumulating on site with no deadline in sight.”
A year ago, University of B.C. geography professor David Ley told the South China Morning Post’s Ian Young he was surprised Vancouver hasn’t seen a political pushback.
Of course, foreign buyers are a mixed blessing, boosting the economy as they make their property purchases. And for now at least, that’s more of a priority for government than any lack of affordability.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Seriously, is there ANY issue that isn't seen as real estate related in Australia?
Will Google Glass change the face of real estate in Australia?
In the last 20 years, technology has been a major driver of change in Australia’s real estate industry. But will Google Glass really make a difference to the way we see property?
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Record gap between Canadian and U.S. house prices
Canada-U.S. House Price Gap Hits A Record High: BMO
Is there a fundamental reason why Canadian prices would be 50% more expensive, or is it just offsetting cycles?
The graph from the article says it all.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Top calls on Canadian Real Estate from Bank Economists
"Boom times are over for Canada’s housing sector"
Canadian real estate and housing boom may be ending, Scotiabank warns
If everyone accesses that wealth through refinancing, that's not real wealth either as you've still got debt on the other side of the balance sheet which is sticking around no matter what the price is when you sell. And if you sell and move up the street, overpaying by 10k to get back into the market, then that's not real wealth either, that's a shell game.
Housing has generated a staggering $1.7 trillion in net new wealth for Canadians since 2000.I find that claim a bit misleading. Because housing is priced at the margin (i.e, one person in a neighborhood of 100 houses sells for 10k more and suddenly collectively the neighborhood is a million dollars richer. Are they really? They can't all access that wealth through selling, as that would tank the market. Unless there is a real structural change, locally, say, a company headquarters moves into town.
If everyone accesses that wealth through refinancing, that's not real wealth either as you've still got debt on the other side of the balance sheet which is sticking around no matter what the price is when you sell. And if you sell and move up the street, overpaying by 10k to get back into the market, then that's not real wealth either, that's a shell game.
· That investment increased, on average, by 4.2 per cent between 2000 and 2012, almost double the GDP growth rate of 2.2 per cent, and accounts for almost 7 per cent of overall economic output, the highest among the G7 countries and double the rate of the U.S.
· Forty-five per cent of that boost to the economy comes from new construction, 37 per cent from renovation and 18 per cent from real estate transaction and transfer costs.Did you know that inefficiencies in a system could constitute economic "boost"?
· The total spent to create all those granite-clad kitchens and Euro-style bathrooms, and boost the value of Canada’s housing stock, ...UGH. There is only so much in wages that can be spent on shelter, over the long term. Granite or no granite. The rest is an economic sinkhole. Now, if you actually invested in efficiency, or healthfulness, that might come back as a return. Granite? Not so much. By the way, don't forget to seal those shiny new counters annually, or you will have to replace it a lot sooner than you think.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Australia Survey: 1 in 5 home buyers getting help from parents
19% of all buyers, 42% of all first time buyers.
Mum and dad help one in five home buyers
These longer running bubbles are drawing more victims in. In the U.S. there was a bit of a generational wealth transfer due to the percent of downsizing retirees during the bubble. And banking shenanigans made asking parents for money less necessary. The dot com bubble that preceded the housing bubble had the advantage of smaller reach, hence a faster recovery from the resulting correction. The more players in the game at the time of the correction, the longer and harder that correction will be.
Mum and dad help one in five home buyers
The report found parental assistance is most pronounced in NSW and in Victoria, but is hitting other parts of the country as well. “Affordability is a growing issue in Queensland as well, but it’s a problem across the board,” she said. Of the about 1,200 people surveyed, the report found more than 30 per cent felt they could not afford the mortgage repayments required to get into the market, a similar amount (32.7 per cent) had been renting for five or more years and 50 per cent couldn’t afford a home deposit.And how many of these parents are dipping into their own housing equity to provide help? Refinances are rising and how scary is it that the money could be just turned back around into housing again. Bubbles are pernicious like that.
![]() |
| Chart of Housing Finance from RP DATA Blog http://blog.rpdata.com/2014/04/housing-finance-data-february-2014/ |
These longer running bubbles are drawing more victims in. In the U.S. there was a bit of a generational wealth transfer due to the percent of downsizing retirees during the bubble. And banking shenanigans made asking parents for money less necessary. The dot com bubble that preceded the housing bubble had the advantage of smaller reach, hence a faster recovery from the resulting correction. The more players in the game at the time of the correction, the longer and harder that correction will be.
Globe and Mail's Canada House Price Correction Calculator
How badly would you be hurt in a housing market price correction?
As you play with the % downturn buttons, note that bubble corrections tend to be shark-fin shaped. Like this chart of the Dow Jones
Ottawa home prices are down 2.5 per cent on a year-to-date basis, according to the Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index. Montreal is off 1.0 per cent, Quebec 1.2 per cent and Halifax 2.6 per cent. “The next markets that will crack are the Prairies outside of Alberta,” said Mr. Rabidoux, president of market research firm North Cove Advisors Inc.link to the calculator
As you play with the % downturn buttons, note that bubble corrections tend to be shark-fin shaped. Like this chart of the Dow Jones
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)


