tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6234866741387164003.post2029974741551716284..comments2023-10-19T04:44:25.725-07:00Comments on World Housing Bubble - China, Australia, Vancouver Real Estate News: As % of GDP, China Consumption Declining, Fixed Investment RisingGGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14963284253203737587noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6234866741387164003.post-53538679762605846032011-09-27T09:45:48.186-07:002011-09-27T09:45:48.186-07:00OK here's the thing: if Roubini (and others) a...OK here's the thing: if Roubini (and others) are correct, and their case is stronger the more data I see, a reversion to higher consumption will have some terrible impacts:<br /><br />1) A severe commodity price crash<br />2) Significantly lower GDP growth in China (and commodity export nations).<br />3) Lower RMB interest rates<br />4) A weaker (yes, weaker) RMB.<br />5) CPI inflation and nominal wages will stagnate.<br />6) Real wages will start increasing.<br />7) Asset prices will crash before low interest rates can relieve debt burdens.<br /><br />We talk about the "Chinese miracle"; we should consider that after a crash things won't be the same, it won't be a "technical recession", it will be a very very different investment climate.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.com